By Tsewang Namgyal
Development of strategies and goals requires an in depth insight into one’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT). SWOT Analysis is a proven technique often used in the business world to understand these issues and craft successful strategies. Similarly, Trend Analysis (TA) is another useful tool. TA allows for the understanding of the world’s political and economic changes and enables one to develop plans that are less reactive and can stand the test of time. In addition, understanding the trends would allow one to leverage on them similar to when a surfer rides the waves by using the natural forces to one’s advantage. Here I would like to apply the above analysis technique and use them to our community.
SWOT Analysis
We have many STRENGTHS in our “fight” with the Chinese government and some of their bad policies. Our obvious strengths are His Holiness, our legal and historical credibility, the dedication of the exiled government officials, patriotism of the Tibetan people and the richness of our culture. However, I believe our greatest strength is our unity irrespective of whether we live inside or outside of Tibet. This belief was most strengthened by a conversation I had with an influential Tibetan who used to work for the Chinese government. According to him, he believes the main reason why the Chinese government talks to the Tibetan leadership in exile is because deep down they are aware that Tibetans inside Tibet support the exile leadership.
We also have many WEAKNESSES such as the lack of recognition of the Tibetan government-in-exile, small population, poor economy and lack of political sophistication. However, I believe the most important weaknesses we need to improve on are in improving our education and economic level. Unless we are able to financially and intellectual empower ourselves further our difficulty will be not only in achieving a political breakthrough but more importantly in executing one.
Here I would like to appeal especially to young Tibetans to study hard and think of (legal) ways to economically empower oneself. As a community we should consider it a “patriotic duty” to do so even if the focus is on individual empowerment. At the end I believe an empowered Tibetan will benefit our community whether intentionally or not.
The greatest OPPORTUNITY that has opened since the March 2008 national uprising that took place is the unprecedented interest in Tibet by the Chinese people. Granted most of the interest has not been supportive. However, I believe if we can clearly share with ordinary Chinese people our similar interests, such as human rights and freedom, I am confident we will get their support. The other opportunities are the rising concerns of many countries regarding China’s growing military power and the world’s continual interest in Tibetan culture because of its benefits.
I believe that our biggest THREAT is attracting and retaining the best Tibetan minds to join the Tibetan Exile Administration. Pleading and invoking patriotism may only go so far. In addition, I believe it is the responsibility of every Tibetans to provide the government officials with sufficient resource, inspire them by genuinely and publicly recognizing their efforts and support them financially whenever possible. The importance of a company’s success depends much on its management. The same logic applies to a government. Therefore, while we demand from our government officials to continue to provide the best service and make sure we have the appropriate checks and balances so mistakes are not made we also need to empower and inspire our government officials. Similarly I believe it is critical we always think of ways to inspire and encourage our many volunteers whether they are in the social, education, community and political field as they help fill in the service gap.
In line with the importance of supporting our government officials, I believe at the Special Meeting, while we may have differences in our final goals and strategies to achieve it we must always continue to remain respectful of our government in exile. At the upcoming meeting, while one strongly share our goals and policies to the Samdhong Rimpoche administration it is important that we not try and force them to change directions. If we do that, we could start a dangerous trend and create an anarchic situation both now and when Rimpoche’s term expires. In the end, I believe we should always respect the mechanism in our constitution irrespective of whether our democratically elected administration supports Independence, the Middle Path or any other goals.
Other threats we face include the Chinese government’s ability to influence the international community to isolate our officials and create disunity among our people.
Trend Analysis
Related to the opportunities and threats I would like to share a few important trends of which we should bear in mind. Prior to that thought I share one of the most powerful teachings that I have heard from our elders so that we are never in a state of panic. When “good” things happen remember it is impermanent. When “bad” things happen remember that too is impermanent. Such reflections allows one to have a calm and clear mind enabling one to best analyze and “exploit” the situation.
Changes in China and the world around us will continue to have a tremendous influence on Tibet. Personally, I believe economic changes will have as much impact on Tibet as political changes.
The world economic crisis and drop in commodity prices will likely have a mixed impact on the Tibetan people. On the negative side, financial donations and remittance to Tibetan exile institutions and families will likely decrease. On the positive side, the drop in copper and oil prices by over 40% since the summer will likely delay some of the planned large-scale natural resources extraction activities in Tibet. This delay may give Tibetans valuable time to really understand the industry and play a more proactive role when large-scale development does take place.
Related to the economic crisis, this month China has announced a US$586 billion stimulas package. Much of it is planned to be used to finance infrastructure project. Although this is welcome as it would likely help stabilize China’s economy with their decrease in exports, there is a danger that some of the funds will be used to further finance their occupation of Tibet.
Current political developments in Taiwan also have the potential to have a major impact on Tibet. With the possible open team up of the KMT administration and the Chinese government on one side and the potential support of the Taiwanese people by the free world on the other side, a showdown is not inconceivable in the near future. If such a conflict does arise, this has the danger of a continual strong clampdown on Tibet so that the Chinese government can focus on the external threats. However, the other scenario is the Chinese government may prevent such a scenario and focus more on a carrot policy with the Taiwanese people and even usher in some freedom in Tibet to try and seduce the Taiwanese people.
The new US administration’s Tibet policy will likely continue to be kind and just. Tibet fortunately enjoys both an emotional and strategic interest for the United States. The European Union will probably continue with a conflicted Tibet policy driven both by their economic interest in their relation with China and moral obligations to support human rights.
The new government of Nepal is likely to continue to have a draconian policy on Tibet unless the Nepali people themselves stand up to their government’s inhumane policies. It is unlikely foreign or external pressures will be able to influence their new government as China will be able to neutralize it. However, if the influence is from within Nepal led by the Tamangs, Sherpas and other ethnic groups who share the same Tibet culture and ideals of human rights it has the potential of changing their government’s Tibet policy to conform with the civilized world.
India’s continual focus on her economy and its sensitivity to its borders will likely be the key factors that could change their Tibet policy. Historical ties and the special relationship that Tibetans and Indians have will cushion any drastic changes. Overall it is likely India will continue to be generous to Tibetans but it would be prudent for the Tibetans to carefully watch the situation since this is the basket where Tibetans have placed most of their eggs.
There are many other trends and in an uncertain world we will never be able to predict and influence all of them. However, we should not wait for the perfect environment but need to look for opportunities that open with each change in scenario.
In conclusion, I believe it is important to see beyond our Tibet world in identifying our opportunities and to capitalize on our strengths. We should never get caught up in petty internal politics if it is ill motivated and remember that every Tibetans contribution must be appreciated. Use of proven techniques such as SWOT and Trend analysis will allow us to help shape our direction, mobilize our resources effectively, mitigate our threats and react pro-actively. Our precious teachings teach us that with compassion and wisdom we will be able to achieve our spiritual goal. I believe the same applies to our political goal.
The author is an MBA graduate from the Thunderbird School of Management and currently works in the Investment Banking field in New York City. Besides his regular work, Tsewang has traveled extensively throughout the three provinces of Tibet and provided consulting and voluntary services to a number of Tibetan organizations. He can be reached at densang123@yahoo.com
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