Siachen and other glaciers to vanish by 2050, which may lead to the subcontinent becoming a wasteland: study
By Khalid Mustafa
ISLAMABAD – Glaciers in the Himalayas, including Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa are all set to fully melt and vanish by 2030 to 2050, putting the lives of 1.5 billion people of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh in extreme danger if Pakistan-India war on Siachen continues unabated, says a study of WWF (World Wide Fund for Nature).
The Siachen alone is not melting at a fast pace, but Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa glaciers are also melting at an alarming rate from where rivers Ganges, Chenab and Satluj originate.
Gangotri, India’s biggest glacier, is melting due to Siachen war, at the rate of 28.1 metres per year and if the current rate continues it would vanish by 2050.
The ongoing battle will not only lead to the fast melting of Siachen, which is a source of water for the Indus river in Pakistan, but the Gangotri glacier will also vanish from where the Ganges originates. Miyer and Mlion glaciers will also melt from where Chenab and Satluj rivers originate.
Ganges and Satluj rivers cater to the irrigational requirements of India whereas Chenab river meets the water needs of the Punjab in Pakistan and is considered to be the food basket of the country.
In case Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa vanish by 2030-2050, Pakistan and India would be deprived of water of Ganges, Chenab and Satluj rivers, which means their agrarian economies would also be destroyed.
Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa glaciers are in danger because of the Delhi-Manali-Leh route, which Indian forces have taken to continue war at Siachen glacier. Because of the heavy traffic on the Delhi-Manali-Leh route of Indian forces’ vehicles and transportation of weapon and running of trains, Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa are getting heated and melting at an alarming speed.
Some Indian institutions also conducted a study on the glaciers and substantiated the conclusions of the WWF with regard to the rate of melting of glaciers other than Siachen.
In June 2005, the Marine and Water Resources Group, the Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, India, the Central Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal, and the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment, Chandigarh, India, also submitted their reports on the glaciers on the Delhi-Manali-Leh route.
The report says that by utilising this route to feed logistics to Siachen glacier, the glaciers located on this route like Gangotri, Miyer, Mlion and Janapa feeding rivers Ganges, Chenab and Satluj, respectively, are endangered.
Satellite data of 1990, 1998, 2000 and 2001 was used in the investigation. The study has shown that the glacier had retreated 578 metres between 1990 and 2001, almost 52 metres per year.
This rate of retreat was confirmed by the field observations of the glacier terminus in October 2003.
The position of the glacier snout was estimated by comparing its relative position with other features in field and in satellite images. In addition, the position of the snout was also estimated using Global Positioning System. Compared to other glaciers in the Himalayas, this glacier is retreating at a higher rate.
This is possibly because the glacier is located in the lower altitude range. About 90 per cent of the glacier is located at the altitude range lower than 5,200 metres; this is almost equal to the average altitude of the snow line at the end of the ablation season.
The specific mass balance of the glacier is estimated using Accumulation Area Ratio Method for a year 2001 as — 86cm. The report suggested that these glaciers will continue to retreat at an unusual rate and it will profoundly affect the availability of water in the basin of Ganges, Chenab and Satluj in future.
When contacted, Arshad H Abbasi, consultant for WWF, said that Siachen is not melting alone but also other important glaciers are melting which cater to water requirements in India.
A new study released by the WWF and conducted by Arshad H Abbasi on Siachen and other Himalayan glaciers proves that global warming is caused by human activity, and not by natural environmental factors. The clear evidence of the human-produced warming on the Siachen and other Himalayan glaciers that is likely to impact water resources in the region and definitely cause rise of sea level. This finding removes much of the uncertainty associated with debates about global warming.
Leadership of the subcontinent knows this fact well but like many other world leaders they have chosen to look the other way. The Saarc governments prefer to believe that global warming is a natural phenomenon, caused by volcanoes and solar energy.
Arshad H Abbasi said that apart from the war at Siachen glacier between Pakistan and India, China has also started running a coal-based train from Qinghai to Tibet, posing another threat as it will also play a significant role in melting other glaciers in the Himalayas affecting Nepal too.
When contacted, WWF Director-General in Pakistan Ali Habib said that melting of the glaciers in the Himalayas is of grave concern for all human beings. He said that global warning is also one of main factors for disturbing the glaciers. However human traffic is also contributing a lot in the melting of glaciers.
