By Thomas S. Axworthy
Asia is the most dangerous place in the world. With Americans dying daily in Iraq; the Bush road map for Israel and Palestine in tatters; and the ghostly visage of Osama bin Laden broadcast to the world by al-Jazeera on the second anniversary of Sept. 11, threatening all of us with even worse horrors; it may be difficult to fathom that the greatest threats to peace and security reside outside the Middle East. But in this league of infamy, Asia leads the first division.
The six-nation talks with North Korea, for example, have ended with no discernible progress and North Korea moving at full speed to expand its nuclear arsenal. Everything that George Bush went to war to prevent in Iraq is occurring irrefutably in North Korea: There a rogue regime has starved hundreds of thousands of its own citizens, attacked its neighbours, built a nuclear bomb, and trafficked with terrorists. North Korea is the world’s most deadly problem.
Right behind is the situation in Pakistan. The Pakistani intelligence service helped invent the Taliban; Islamists are honeycombed within the intelligence service and the armed forces. Pakistan has also developed nuclear weapons to protect itself in the 50-year conflict with India over Kashmir. Terrorists can either spark outrages in India hoping to bring about Armageddon in a nuclear war between India and Pakistan, or Islamists could promote a coup in Pakistan itself, putting a Taliban-style regime in power in Islamabad. The regime of President Pervez Musharraf presides over one of the world’s most turbulent countries, and if you thought the Taliban in Afghanistan was a problem, what about if a similarly motivated group had its thumb on a nuclear trigger?
In this Asian cauldron of animosity, one optimistic possibility is the emergence of a peaceful, engaged China. The Middle Kingdom has been the dominant player in Asia for 5,000 years, and in our time it has been a key ally of both North Korea and Pakistan. We are witnessing in the early years of the 21st century a China that is systematically turning away from the isolation and madness of the cultural revolution of Mao towards an engagement with its neighbours. This engagement is primarily economic. China’s ascension to the World Trade Organization is of the utmost importance, but it is also strategic with China participating in the six-nation negotiations with North Korea.
Encouraging China to take a constructive role in its own region is in the interests of us all. Canada might be able to play a small part in this engagement strategy. The National Post has recently run a foreign policy series with much debate about the utility of “hard views” and “soft power.” Of course, you need both, and we need to invest more in both elements of power if we are to play a role in the world. With China, Canada does have some unique soft power assets. The legend of the Long March is one of the stories that all one billion Chinese know: A Canadian, Dr. Norman Bethune played a major role in this epic. At Harvard I have been teaching students from China for many years and, without exception, once they know I am a Canadian they mention Bethune. My mother-in-law, as a nurse, knew and worked with Bethune. Mentioning this once at a conference in Beijing, I was mobbed by delegates wanting to learn more. Virtually unknown in Canada, Bethune is a god in China. Though much less widely known than Bethune, Pierre Trudeau is also revered by the Chinese elite as the prime minister who in 1969 broke the logjam on the recognition of China. These are “soft” but very real assets in working with the Chinese.
One way to use these assets is to explore whether Canada can play a useful role in helping China move forward on Tibet. Prime Minister Chrétien will be in Beijing in October, 2003: the Dalai Lama, the spiritual leader of the Tibetan people, will be visiting Canada in April, 2004. An autonomous Tibet, existing within the security perimeter of China, is a solution waiting to happen. Representatives of the Tibetan government in exile and the Chinese have already begun to talk.
There may be no role for Canada. But like Norway offering a neutral locale for the first formal talks between Israel and the Palestinians, Canada might provide a locale and facilitation to expedite the Tibetan-Chinese dialogue. The Prime Minister should explore this with the Chinese, and if they are receptive, talks could begin prior to the Dalai Lama’s Canadian visit. Gravenhurst, the birthplace of Bethune, would make a wonderful symbolic locale. China is the key to a peaceful Asia: Settling its dispute amicably with the Tibetans would be one more step in making China a leader among nations.
Thomas S. Axworthy is the chairman of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, a Vancouver-based think-tank.
