(By Natalie Tso / Taipei
If you’re in a mess, say ‘yes.’ That may be what Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou
was thinking when he gave his official nod to the controversial visit of the
Dalai Lama, Tibet’s leader-in-exile, to Taiwan next week. Ma has been facing his
lowest approval ratings . around 20% . since he took office over a year ago. The
public has been angry with his lack of strong leadership and slow relief efforts
after typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan on August 8th, bringing the worst floods in 50
years, and leaving at least 568 confirmed dead or missing and over 7000
homeless.
Local government leaders of the opposition party in the south . the area hit
hardest by the typhoon . invited the Dalai Lama to comfort and pray for the
victims of the worst natural disaster to hit the island since a 1999 earthquake
killed over 2,400. The Dalai Lama will arrive on Aug. 30 to give speeches and
visit disaster areas for six days. This will be his third visit to Taiwan; the
first two were in 1997 and 2001. The presidential office said they agreed to
this visit on religious and humanitarian considerations, adding that it believed
it would not harm relations with China.
Just nine months ago, Ma had rejected the visit of the Tibetan spiritual leader
after the Buddhist community invited him because he didn’t want to upset
Beijing. Ma said then that “the time was inappropriate” for such a visit.
Forging closer ties with China, Taiwan’s long-time political rival and military
threat, has been Ma’s biggest priority and achievement so far as president. In
his short time in office, he’s reached milestones such as opening up investment
and tourism to the Chinese and establishing direct transportation.
As expected, China promptly expressed its opposition to the visit. The day after
Ma’s announcement, China’s Taiwan Affairs Bureau said, “No matter under what
form or identity Dalai uses to enter Taiwan, we resolutely oppose this,”
according to the Xinhua news agency. China is sensitive to prominent overseas
visits by Dalai Lama, whom it accuses of seeking independence for Tibet. Beijing
boycotted a European Union summit last December when French President Nicolas
Sarkozy said he planned to meet with the exiled Tibetan leader.
But the brunt of China’s statement was aimed at the opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) . not the Ma administration. “Some DPP members have
taken the chance to plot the Dalai Lama’s visit to Taiwan,” Xinhua reported,
“Obviously this is not for the sake of disaster relief. It’s an attempt to
sabotage the hard-earned good situation in cross-Strait relations.” Political
commentator Antonio Chiang says China’s obligatory protest will not hurt Ma’s
platform of improving relations. “Beijing is going to make some noise, but
that’s it,” he says. “They understand Ma’s in big trouble.” Beijing, whose goal
is eventual unification with the island, is wary of the DPP, which leans towards
independence for Taiwan, and would certainly like to see Ma reelected in 2012.
Ma’s drop in popularity is likely more a concern to China than the Dalai Lama’s
visit.
China has long struggled to reign in independence movements in Taiwan and the
semi-autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, where deadly riots over ethnic
tensions between the Han Chinese and Uighur minority unfolded in July. With the
moderate Ma Ying-jeou as president, Beijing’s fears over Taiwan have been
alleviated as Ma promised not to declare independence during his term.
“[Beijing] needs Ma more than Ma needs Beijing now,” says Chiang.
And for Ma, the current challenge is not consoling his giant neighbor, but
winning back the hearts of his own people. “There are now people who are
thinking about the return of the DPP,” says Lin Chong-pin, a political scientist
at Tamkang University, “If the 2012 election was held now, Ma would be bound to
lose.” Taiwan’s reception of their Tibetan guest next week is Ma’s bet to boost
public sentiment. Though Ma is unlikely to meet with the Dalai Lama officially,
they may appear together at religious gatherings for the victims. Lin says, “On
balance overall, I think it will help Ma more than hurt him.”
